Output files

When AMES is run, it generates several output files in the following folders:

otuputs 
└───NAME
    └───calibration
    └───[diagnostics]
    └───results

The NAME of the folder under outputs is specified by the output_folder parameter in the configuration file. The diagnostics folder is only present if the report-diagnostics parameter is set to true in the configuration file.

Different scenarios can be specified by different configuration files, with different output_folder parameters set. In that case, there will be several folders:

otuputs 
└───NAME 1
    └───calibration
    └───[diagnostics]
    └───results
└───NAME 2
    └───calibration
    └───[diagnostics]
    └───results
...

In addition, AMES writes a log file called AMES_log_XXXX.txt to the main folder, where XXXX is the output_folder specified in the configuration file. If the model fails, then the error message will be written to the log file.

The diagnostics folder

When the report-diagnostics parameter is set to true, a variety of diagnostic outputs are reported.

One crucial diagnostic indicator, which is motivated in Isolating the energy sector is given in the file nonenergy_energy_link_measure.txt. It contains a message like the following:

Measure of the significance to the economy of the supply of non-energy goods and services to the energy sector:
This value should be small: 2.52%.

Whether the estimated parameter is sufficiently small or not depends on the purposes of the analysis. For the Freedonia sample model, it suggests that excluding the demand by the energy sector of non-energy goods and services could lead to a 2.52% discrepancy.

An additional set of files with names such as model_0_2010.txt provide an export of the linear goal program prepared by the AMES model. Examining these files can sometimes be helpful when the log file indicates an error in JuMP (the Julia mathematical programming library). The file offers an explicit formulation of the model, with the calculated parameters:

Min 1.7333333333333334 ugap[1] + 0.5333333333333333 ugap[2] + 0.6000000000000001 ugap[3] + ...
Subject to
 eq_util[1] : ugap[1] + u[1] == 1.0
 eq_util[2] : ugap[2] + u[2] == 1.0
 eq_util[3] : ugap[3] + u[3] == 1.0
 eq_util[4] : ugap[4] + u[4] == 1.0
...

Some of the files provide "sanity checks" on the input data.

• demand_coefficients.csv: These should sum to a total less than one down the columns
• [energy_share.csv]: If present, these should be less than one (only reported if energy sectors are excluded)
• imported_fraction.csv: These should be less than one
• profit_margins.csv: These should be greater than 1 but (usually) less than 2
• supply_fractions.csv: These should sum to one along columns (unless the product is not produced domestically, in which case the sum will be zero)

Other files report figures that should be close to, although not necessarily identical to, the corresponding values in the supply-use table. The differences arise because AMES compensates for territorial adjustments or stock changes:

• domestic_production.csv
• exports.csv
• final_demand.csv
• imports.csv
• investment.csv
• margins.csv
• sector_output.csv
• tot_intermediate_demand_all_products.csv
• tot_intermediate_supply_all_sectors.csv
• tot_intermediate_supply_non-energy_sectors.csv: Note that these values will be lower than in the supply-use table due to the excluded energy sectors
• wages.csv

If intermediate demand coefficients are calculated endogenously, then a further set of files will be reported containing tables of intermediate demand coefficients for each year of the simulation:

• demand_coefficients_[year].csv

The calibration folder

The files in this folder are generated after further adjustments and a calibration run of the linear goal program. Some of these files can also be used as a "sanity check", including:

• basic_prices_0.csv: These should be close to 1
• capacity_utilization_0.csv: These should be less than or equal to 1, and most should be close to 1
• capital_output_ratio_0.csv: These should normally lie between 1 and 4, but may be outside that range
• margins_neg_0.csv and margins_pos_0.csv: These should sum to the same total
• wage_share_0.csv: These should be less than 1

Others of the files in the calibration folder have names similar to the diagnostics folder. The values may be noticeably different due to the adjustments carried out by the AMES model:

• domestic_production_0.csv
• exports_0.csv
• final_demand_0.csv
• imports_0.csv
• sector_output_0.csv
• tot_intermediate_supply_non-energy_sectors_0.csv

The results folder

The results folder contains the simulation results from the model. Once the model is fully developed, calibrated, and running in practice, this is the most interesting folder to look at.

When running with LEAP, the AMES model may be run several times to converge on a consistent set of results. The results folder contains outputs from each of the runs:

Two of the results files (with the run number indicated by #) contain multiple variables:

• indices_#.csv: The indices that are passed to LEAP, as specified in the configuration file (if no indices are defined, then this file will not be written)
• collected_variables_#.csv: A set of key variables, such as net exports, GDP, and so on

AMES is a demand-driven model, so economic growth is driven by final demand, exports net of imports, and investment. Total investment expenditure is reported in collected_variables_#.csv. Final demand, exports, and imports are reported by product:

• final_demand_#.csv
• exports_#.csv and imports_#.csv

Output by sector is reported as actual output and potential output (that is, output at full capacity utilization). The ratio of actual to potential output is capacity utilization, which is reported separately:

• sector_output_#.csv
• potential_sector_output_#.csv
• capacity_utilization_#.csv

Real value added by sector – that is, sector output less the cost of intermediate goods and services – is also reported:

• real_value_added_#.csv

A further sector indicator, domestic insertion, is a measure of direct and indirect demand for domestic products by sector:

• domestic_insertion.csv

Investment rates are determined by the autonomous investment rate, the profit rate, capacity utilization, and the interest rate. The autonomous investment rate is an expectation of future growth, which gradually adjusts over time in response to realized growth (that is, the model features "adaptive expectations"). The interest rate is reported in collected_variables_#.csv, while the capacity utilization file was listed above. The other relevant files are:

• profit_rate_#.csv
• autonomous_investment_rate_#.csv

In AMES, world prices of tradeable goods and services are exogenous, so they are not reported. Domestic prices are calculated endogenously by applying a markup. "Basic" prices of goods and services are calculated as a trade-weighted average of the world and domestic price. Domestic and basic prices are reported in the files:

• domestic_prices_#.csv
• basic_prices_#.csv