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LULUCF

Adding National Data

Land use conversion

Once the land use conversion matrix described in the previous section has been developed by the national experts, the data can be directly added to the model. The structure, and calculations for the majority of typical land use conversions such as re- and deforestation, urbanisation, expansion of pastures, and severe degradation of pastures are already established in the sample model and only require filling land areas undergoing land use chage (Key Assumption variable) as well as updating certain parameters that are specific to the national context and the local climate.

Major land use conversions already in the model include:

Natural forests:

• Other Land converted to Natural Forest

Cropland:

• Grassland converted to Cropland
• Other Land converted to Cropland

Grassland:

• Other Land converted to Grassland

Settlements:

• Cropland converted to Settlements
• Grassland converted to Settlements
• Other Land converted to Settlements

Other lands:

• Plantation Forest converted to Other Land
• Cropland converted to Other Land
• Wetland converted to Other Land
• Grassland converted to Other Land
• Cropland converted to Other Land

Estimated areas subject to land use change can be directly added to the Key Assumption-variable under the particular branch (e.g. KEY/LULUCF/Forested Land/Natural Forest Lands/Other Land converted to Natural Forest: Key Assumption)

Projections
The land use conversion matrix should not only include historical data, but users should also develop projections based on likely land use change trends. These might be due to human pressures or climate driven pressures, for example historical deforestation and urbanisation trends might be expected to continue at historical rates, and climate driven cropland degradation might be expected to accelerate. When developing mitigation scenarios, actions that will contribute to sequestration, such as reforestation or changes in agricultural croplands that increase both climate resilience and carbon sequestrations, might be excluded from the Baseline scenario so they can be counted towards mitigation potential. Per default the model is set up such that no land use changes will take place after the first Scenario year unless otherwise specified by the user. This also means that land use changes post 2024 entered into Current Accounts will be ignored unless the user updates the Baseline-expressions.

Data for applying Tier 2 Gain-Loss-method for forested lands:

• Natural forests remaining natural forests
• Plantation forests remaining plantation forests
• Wood extractions
  • Fuel wood extractions
    • Coniferous : KEY/LULUCF/Forested Land/Fuel Wood Extraction coniferous incl bark: Key Assumption
    • Non-coniferous: KEY/LULUCF/Forested Land/Fuel Wood Extraction non coniferous incl bark: Key Assumption
  • Industrial wood extractions
    • Coniferous: KEY/LULUCF/Forested Land/Industrial Wood Extraction coniferous incl bark: Key Assumption
    • Non-coniferous: KEY/LULUCF/Forested Land/Industrial Wood Extraction coniferous incl bark: Key Assumption
• Fraction wood extraction Natural forest: the remainder will be extracted from Plantation forests
• Area burnt in forest fires: Forest Land Burnt: Key Assumption
• Add 20-year lagged values from land converted to forest land to Natural forests remaining natural forests and Plantation forests remaining plantation forests (after 20 years reforested areas are considered forest lands remaining forests). An example can be found under the branch KEY/Forested Land/Natural Forest/Natural forests remaining natural forests:Key Assumption : ScenarioValue(Current Accounts) + LaggedValue(Other Land converted to Natural Forest, 19) If other land types are afforested this expression has to be updated accordingly.

If national statistics on these data are not available, they can be retrieved from FAOStat.

Climate and geography dependent variables

Key climate dependent variables that need to be updated:

• KEY/Forested Land/Natural Forest/Natural Forest remaining Natural Forest and KEY/Forested Land/Plantation Forest/Plantation Forest remaining Plantation Forest:
  • Annual biomass growth rates delta_CG (Table 4.9, Chapter 4, Vol 4, IPCC 19R)
  • Root to shoot ratio Root_shoot Ratio (Table 4.4, Chapter 4, Vol 4, IPCC 19R)
• KEY/[LAND USE CATEGORY B]/[Natural or Plantation forest converted to LAND USE B]:
  • Old biomass stock Biomass_old (Table 4.7, Chapter 4, Vol 4, IPCC 19R)
  • Dead wood carbon stocks Dead wood stock (Table 2.2, Chapter 4, Vol 4, IPCC 19R)
  • Litter carbon stocks Litter stock_old (Table 2.2, Chapter 4, Vol 4, IPCC 19R)
• KEY/Cropland/[LAND USE A converted to Cropland]:
  • Adjustment factor for new land use: LU_new
  • Adjustment factor for new management practice: LMG_new
  • Adjustment factor for new inputs (fertilization practice): LI_new
• KEY/[LAND USE CATEGORY]/[LAND USE A converted to LAND USE B]:
  • Annual biomass growth rates delta_CG (Tables 5.9 and 6.4, Vol 4, IPCC 19R; Tables 5.1,5.2 IPCC 19R)
  • Reference soil organic carbon stock SOC_ref (Table 2.3, Chapter 4, Vol 4, IPCC 19R, can be specific to land use type)

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